A Word--(Many Words) About the Federal Workforce

By now, you’ve heard that President Trump and Elon Musk have taken a chainsaw to the federal workforce (his description, not mine.) They have described our government as “bloated,” and full of fraud and waste.

Although some have suggested that these discharges were related to “performance,” that doesn’t seem to be the case. Many of these folks had received outstanding performance reviews—or they hadn’t been on the job long enough to receive an evaluation. What they have in common is that they are probationary employees—within their first year or two of employment, or they’ve have made a job change, or been promoted. Those people are easier to fire under civil service rules.

They’re not being fired because their jobs are not important. In fact, there is evidence that the folks doing the firing don’t know who these people are, what they do, or who’ll get hurt when they disappear.

For example, hundreds of federal employees were laid off from the Energy Department, a move that was quickly rescinded when somebody realized that they were the people who manage our nuclear weapons systems. This was made difficult because they’d been locked out of their work computers.

The Energy Department also riffed a small group of people who build and maintain the power grid in the Pacific Northwest. Then quickly hired them back. I mean, who knew?

USDA employees who battle bird flu were accidentally let go, followed by frantic attempts to hire them back.

From the Department of Veterans Affairs, we’ve lost researchers into cancer treatment, opioid addiction, prosthetics and burn pit exposure. https://apnews.com/article/doge-firings-layoffs-federal-government-workers-musk-d33cdd7872d64d2bdd8fe70c28652654.

Thousands of Forest Service, National Park Service and FEMA employees were fired, including some involved in ongoing cleanup efforts here in Western North Carolina after Helene, and in California after wildfires. Officials are quick to say that no actual “firefighters” were cut—just the people who clear the debris that causes fires to spread. And the people who make sure the firefighters get to where the fires are. And people whose primary job is not fire-fighting, but who join in when necessary.

Pro tip: If you get lost or injured in the National Parks this summer, you’re on your own. And you can forget getting that National Parks passport stamped.

Proposed cuts to IRS staffing are predicted to cost more in lost revenues than they save. A non-partisan Congressional Budget Office report estimates that a $20 billion cut would reduce revenues by $44 billion over ten years, and increase the deficit by $24 billion. https://www.wbaltv.com/article/irs-layoffs-could-hurt-revenue-collection-experts-say/63858223 No doubt wealthy tax cheats are celebrating.

The administration has cut staffing at the FAA amid a spate of plane crashes. While we’re being told that no actual air traffic controllers have been riffed, those fired include mechanics who maintain and repair the equipment controllers use, aeronautical information specialists who create the routes that controllers use to guide aircraft, people who study “near misses” and analyze risks, and those who make sure that airlines are following FAA rules and regulations. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/20/faa-firings-aviation-safety-experts-00205160

Former Fox News host turned transportation secretary Sean Duffy assures us that none of these people really did anything useful. Do you believe him?

Some defenders of these cuts have said that it’s time to finally rein in government spending, and that these sacrifices might preserve Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security. The thing is, if the Federal budget is skyrocketing, or Medicare and Social Security are short of cash, it’s not because of a federal hiring spree. Federal employment has remained basically flat since 1990, while the Federal budget has more than doubled. https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-people-work-for-the-federal-government/ During this time, the US population increased by 39.6%, so the federal workforce has dwindled in relation to the size of the public it serves. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-federal-workforce-job-cuts-executive-order-doge-elon-musk/

The Social Security Administration last year served a record 68 million beneficiaries with its smallest staff in 50 years. President Trump has promised not to touch Social Security, and yet the Musk team has already begun to cut jobs and plan to close at least 10 local offices. https://www.propublica.org/article/doge-social-security-elon-musk-trump-closures-benefits

Can slashing federal employment really save our entitlement programs? Or offset the cost of the proposed extension of the Trump tax cuts for the rich ($4 trillion over the next decade or $400 billion a year)?

What if we go big—we slash 25% of our federal workforce. In 2022, the federal civilian payroll totaled $271 billion, so a 25% cut would “save” $67.75 billion of the total federal budget of $6.16 trillion. That amounts to a whopping 1%. https://usafacts.org/articles/how-has-the-federal-budget-changed/

Taken together, the cost of Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security was $3.2 trillion in 2023. That $67.75 billion in savings is only 2% of that.

So much pain, so much risk, for so little return.

There are other ways, of course, to balance the budget and save entitlements. We could get rid of the income limit on social security payroll taxes, so that the wealthy pay taxes on their entire payroll income. We could return to the much higher income taxes of the 1950s (which were boom years, by the way.) We could eliminate some of the loopholes wealthy folks and corporations use in order to pay no taxes at all. We could take a hard look at real fraud and waste—maybe starting with the Defense Department, who can’t pass an audit.

I’m not an economist nor an accountant, and I’ve been pulling numbers from a lot of different sources. I think my math is right. I suspect my math is better than what I’m seeing from this administration.

This story is not just about numbers—it’s about people who are losing their jobs through no fault of their own. Hard-working people—your neighbors--who may be supporting families. A high percentage are veterans, who receive preference in Federal hiring (one of those DEI programs we keep hearing about.) These people accepted jobs in good faith. They are not picking your pocket. Many of these people work for less than they could in the private sector, but feel called to serve the public. Many voted for Donald Trump.

It would be different if this staffing cut was carefully planned, debated in the Congress, and vetted by representatives accountable to us. It would be different if there was a plan for how government services will function with fewer people. It would be different if all this pain and chaos was saving real money. It would help if these employees had been treated with respect.

It's easy to cut government spending if you don’t believe that the government does anything important. If you have no interest in preserving a functional government. If you believe that all government employees are slackers, feeding at the public trough.

I happen to disagree with all of that.